BEHAVIOUR CHANGE AND ECONOMICS
Research progress
01
UNDERSTANDING PRODUCER MOTIVATION AND EXPLORING INCENTIVES
We surveyed agricultural producers to learn more about why they make certain decisions about selecting which beneficial management practices to use. We included questions covering a range of financial and non-financial incentives that would impact their decisions.
02
REVIEWING WATER QUALITY TRADING SCHEMES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO LEARN SUCCESS FACTORS
We reviewed water quality trading programs across North America from the past 20 years to identify key factors that influence their level of success. We found that, more often than not, success requires a clear and transparent regulatory framework, easy-to-understand rules for participation, and a system of trust between trading partners.
03
ACCOUNTING FOR THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION
We developed a model that assesses the impacts of climate change on water availability in economic terms on the agricultural sector and applied this to the entire Great Lakes watershed. We found that climate change projections over the coming decades suggest that not only will there be a decline in water levels in the Great Lakes region, but that these will occur at times when water demand in the area is highest – leading to a projected economic loss of up to 3% of Ontario’s GDP.
04
INCLUDING HUMAN BEHAVIOURS AND RESPONSES WITHIN HYDROLOGICAL MODELS
Hydrological models typically include only physical features (e.g. landscape attributes or beneficial management practices) or conditions (e.g. climate drivers) and do not adequately include the human-related aspects of decision-making. Our team has piloted an agent-based model that accounts for the decision-making behaviour of agricultural producers in the selection of management practices on fields and is working to incorporate it into hydrological models.
05
THE TYPE AND LOCATION OF BENEFICIAL MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IMPACT PHOSPHORUS PATHWAYS INTO LAKE ERIE
We compared the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of selected beneficial management practices at improving water quality in the Lake Erie watershed. We found that targeted placement of key practices, such as crop rotation, has a significant impact on reducing phosphorus loading to the lake. We also found that zones in which critical source areas are contributing more than 50% of total phosphorus going into Lake Erie overlap with areas of beneficial management practices implementation in the Grand River watershed. This suggests that while the right areas are being targeted for the implementation of beneficial management practices to control phosphorus, more action or uptake is needed in order to reach target phosphorus reductions.
Key messages
01
UNDERSTANDING BEHAVIOURS AND LESSONS LEARNED ARE IMPORTANT FOR DESIGNING EFFECTIVE INCENTIVES AND PROGRAMS
Whether it’s understanding producer attitudes and motivations in selecting beneficial management practices or learning about key successes and fail factors of previous water quality trading programs, understanding incentives can help policy-makers design cost-effective programs that support managing water quality challenges.
02
HIGHER ECONOMIC COSTS LINKED TO LONG-TERM WATER AVAILABILITY UNDERMINE FUTURE FOOD AND WATER SECURITY
Sustainable agriculture is essential for our long-term food supply – but it also plays a large role in our economy and has an impact on the environment. Using tools like our combined hydro-economic model will help to evaluate trade-offs between water quality improvements and economic implications for the agricultural sector, and overall GDP, as we try to reduce phosphorus runoff in the Great Lakes watershed.
03
DRIVERS OF HUMAN BEHAVIOUR AND DECISION-MAKING NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN NEXT GENERATION MODELS
Decisions made by producers on which beneficial management practices to use are not solely based on information related to hydrology or watersheds. To accurately predict impacts from future climate change and identify suitable management practices that minimize nutrient loading to watersheds, next generation models must include data on what drives producer behaviours and decisions.
©2021 Agricultural Water Futures, University of Waterloo